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Mathematics & Statistics

Frontiers in Statistics
(Leader: Dr. George Yanev)

Friday, November 17, 2006

Title
Speaker


Time
Place

Two Centuries of Hypothesis Testing
Eric Lehmann
ASA Continuing Education Program
Distinguished Statistician Video Series
3:00pm-4:00pm
PHY 013

Friday, October 27, 2006

Title
Speaker


Time
Place

Origins of Empirical Bayes (Butterflies, Oysters and Stars)
Herbert Robbins
ASA Continuing Education Program
Distinguished Statistician Video Series
3:00pm-4:00pm
PHY 013

Friday, October 6, 2006

Title

Speaker
Time
Place

Statistical Environmental Models: Hurricanes. Predicting the birth of a storm, predicting the intensity of a storm and analysis of the Saffir-Simpson scale
Rebecca Wooten
3:00pm-4:00pm
PHY 013

Abstract

The relationship between statistics and physics looking at the correlation between wind speed and pressure versus wind speed and temperature play a significant role in hurricane prediction. Contrary to previous studies, this study indicates that a drop in pressure is a result of the storm and less a cause. It shows that temperature is a key indicator that a storm will form in conjunction with a drop in pressure.

This study demonstrates a model that predicts the wind speed within a storm with a high degree of accuracy. With the verified model, we can perform surface response analysis to estimate the conditions under which the wind speed is maximized. Additional studies introduce a model that predicts the number of lightning strikes dependent on significantly contributing factors such as precipitable water, the temperatures within a column of air and the temperature range. Using extreme value distribution and historical data we can best fit flood stages, then including profiling estimate return periods.

Friday, September 29, 2006

Title
Speaker
Time
Place

A Multiple Regression Model for the Prediction of Average Annual Rainfall in Florida
George W. Kimber, Jr.
3:00pm-4:00pm
PHY 013

Abstract

Several multiple regression models for the prediction of average annual rainfall in Florida will be presented and discussed. The nature, limitations, and potential of the original pilot study will be reviewed. A comparison will be made with a similar multiple regression model used to predict average annual rainfall in California. There will be an analysis of the underlying assumptions. The commands in SAS that generate the relevant procedures will also be demonstrated. A general discussion of the multiple regression procedures and of their interpretations will be presented.

Friday, September 22, 2006

Title
Speaker
Time
Place

Characterizations of Probability Distributions via Bivariate Regression of Record Values
George P. Yanev
3:00pm-4:00pm
PHY 013

Abstract

We characterize the exponential distribution in terms of the regression of a function of a record value with its non-adjacent record values as covariates. We also consider a more general setting involving monotone transformations. We present special cases of characterizations involving weighted arithmetic, geometric, and harmonic means.

Friday, September 8, 2006

Title
Speaker
Time
Place

Parameter Estimation for the Distribution of Number of Children
Julie Cholet
3:00pm-4:00pm
PHY 013

Abstract

The number of children born to a family may be modeled by the negative binomial distribution. However, the frequency class containing zero children is typically larger than expected under this distribution. There are two categories of childlessness. One consists of both deliberate choice and biological infertility, collectively labeled “sterility”. The other is the operation of chance. The latter category belongs to the negative binomial distribution, while the former does not. The inflation of the zero class due to presence of “sterile” families can make parameter estimation of the distribution difficult. We discuss three approaches to solving this problem.